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Total aid package of 237 billion euros, of which nearly 110 billion erase debt. Unprecedented in economic history. The agreement reached Tuesday by the countries of the euro area is of a magnitude sufficient to solve some of Greece's problems. But not all … The IMF director Christine Lagarde, the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker and European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn presented in Brussels on Tuesday the new plan with 237 billion euros to Greece.

Countries in the euro area agreed Tuesday morning on a new bailout unprecedented in Greece of 237 billion euros in total. The agreement came in the night after more than thirteen hours of negotiations between the Finance Ministers of the monetary union.

The bankruptcy of Greece is avoided

A very short term, the overall agreement found Tuesday that Greece can not default on a repayment period of 14.5 billion euros which falls on March 20. It was urgent to avoid it because it was necessary to launch the erase operation of the related debt before Wednesday. But the plan is mainly to provide a breath of fresh air to the medium-term financial countries. It is made secure its payments until 2014 with a new steering wheel of government loans (EU and IMF) to 130 billion euros. This windfall is in addition to a first support plan of 110 billion agreed in May 2010 and over 70 billion has been paid. The funding will also replenish the Greek banking system that otherwise would have exploded.

Greece has a deletion of unprecedented debt

Long regarded as impossible, the deletion of part of the Greek debt will take place. The final negotiations have even led to all creditors make an extra effort. Banks and investment funds, first of all, are invited to accept a loss of 53.5% on the amount of their loans to Greece (the face value of bonds), against 50% previously requested. Which will erase 107 billion euros of debt. Unprecedented in world economic history. In 2002, Argentina had erased a slate of "only" 73 billion euros.

But private creditors are not just write off more than half of capital they have lent. They also waive a portion of interest thereon. That's why we say the final loss exceeds 70%. Concretely, in effect, banks will exchange their current Greek debt obligations against new and lower value of the securities issued by the Relief Fund of the euro area. Since the duration of these securities will be extended and reduced interest rates, the debt burden of Greece will be alleviated. An absolute necessity. Given the forecast growth of 2% and inflation of 2% also, it is necessary that the interest rate charged is less than 4% so that Greece can hope to reduce its debt stock. But the average final found is 3.5%. A priori sustainable.

European states and the ECB will participate in the restructuring

The extra effort of private creditors responds to a conclusion: the inadequacy of the plan concocted in December. Revised up, the intensity of the recession is indeed allowed to bring the Greek debt to 129% of GDP in 2020. Far from the goal of 120% presented as sustainable. It had to be clear even more debt, or pay more money. But European states did not want to put their hands in the pocket. They nevertheless agreed to lower the interest rate on bilateral loans in the forefront of aid to Greece.

There is also a gesture of the ECB which will put the pot of restructuring the 45 to 50 billion Greek bonds it acquired in the secondary market since 2010. Redemptions made at deflated prices that allow it to consider a capital gain when trading. The potential windfall is evaluated according to the sources between 10 and 13 billion euros. What appeared to fill the holes in the support plan. Remains to be technically and legally finalize the transfer. Not clear when considering that the ECB does not have the right to directly fund the States. The solution could then go through a transfer EFSF.

Greece was put under trusteeship almost

The debates were intense between creditor countries in favor of a trusteeship of Greece – like the Netherlands – and those who wanted to preserve the appearance of maintaining Greek sovereignty. In fact, monitoring will be strengthened to ensure that the country implements the requirements of the EU and the IMF. The government has also given many pledges as well. It adopted a new plan savings of 3.3 billion euros this year, after already 7 austerity plans, at the cost of violent street protests and renewed political turbulence. And the leaders of both parties in the ruling coalition, the Socialists and New Democracy (right), have pledged in writing to respect the promises of budget savings and reforms even after the early parliamentary elections, which should be held in in April. The European Commission will be much more present in Greece to ensure it does not deviate from the targets.

The plan will not be enough by itself to save Greece

Finally, all measures should allow Greece to reduce its debt to 120.5% of GDP in 2020. A figure still very high. The debt restructuring is necessary but not sufficient to guarantee the country's rescue. Undermined by the economic recession, with five consecutive years of falling GDP, the country has just won the time to implement reforms meant to help revive growth. The risk is to see the austerity shut Greece in the vicious circle of recession. With all possible disaster scenarios in this case: social explosion and release of the euro area.

Three uncertainties remain on the closure plan

In fact the agreement was negotiated on behalf of private creditors by their representative, Charles Dalara. It remains to be convinced individually up to private creditors to voluntarily participate in this plan. Charles Dallara has certainly said Tuesday its confidence in this area. But he did not rule out that Greece coercion if the participation rate was not reached. The parliament may well pass a law that would require creditors to take their losses. With unknown consequences. Voluntariness is especially necessary to avoid triggering the payment of CDS, the famous insurance against defaults. But even if the market seems to be small-about 3.5-billion, no one has forgotten the role of CDS in the 2008 financial crisis.

A second gray area concerns the IMF. The institution seems again ready to participate in public aid of EUR 130 billion, but the amount has not yet unencrypted. It will make its decision in the second week of March, said its executive director, Christine Lagarde. Finally, it will technically see how the ECB will succeed in Greece enjoy any capital gains generated by the exchange of its package of Greek bonds.